Scientific commentary: Strategic analysis of environmental policy risks-heat maps, risk futures and the character of environmental harm

We summarise our recent efforts on the policy level risk appraisal of environmental risks. These have necessitated working closely with policy teams and a requirement to maintain crisp and accessible messages for policy audiences. Our comparative analysis uses heat maps, supplemented with risk narratives, and employs the multidimensional character of risks to inform debates on the management of current residual risk and future threats. The policy research and ensuing analysis raises core issues about how comparative risk analyses are used by policy audiences, their validation and future developments that are discussed in the commentary below

Integrating horizon scanning and strategic risk prioritisation using a weight of evidence framework to inform policy decisions

Poor connection between data on emerging issues and credible policy decisions continues to challenge governments, and is only likely to grow as demands on time and resources increase. Here we summarise recent efforts to integrate horizon scanning and risk prioritisation approaches to better connect emerging issues to the political discourse on environmental and food-related issues. Our categorisation of insights including potential future risks and opportunities to inform policy discussions has emerged from a structured three-year programme of horizon scanning for a UK pan-governmental futures partnership led by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra). Our efforts to integrate horizon scanning and risk prioritisation, utilising a qualitative weight of evidence framework, has created a systematic process for identifying all signals of potential future change with significant impact for the strategic mission and underlying values of policy actors. Our approach encourages an exploration of factors out of the control of organisations, recognising that resilience depends on the flexibility of management strategies and the preparedness to deal with a variety of unexpected outcomes. We discuss how this approach addresses key cultural and evaluative challenges that policy actors have had in embedding horizon scanning in evidence-based policy processes, and suggest further developments to build confidence in the use of horizon scanning for strategic planning

Future foods: Morphological scenarios to explore changes in the UK food system with implications for food safety across the food chain

Scenarios are used to examine systemic change in food systems so policy makers can craft opportunities to improve the management of uncertainty and shape food policy. We present a number of alternative scenarios of the food system for 2035, developed with the Food Standards Agency, the independent government department working to protect public health and consumers’ interest in relation to food for England, Wales and Northern Ireland. To build scenarios we employed morphological analysis; a non-quantified method for modelling multiple scenario variables (food system drivers, projections), simulating their interactions and all possible scenario combinations. A cross-consistency analysis compared all possible scenario combinations to identify which set of driver projections formed a logical (internally consistent) scenario. Recently, we augmented the scenarios to consider the potential impacts and consequences of Brexit and the pandemic on consumer food safety. Outputs illustrate the consequences of extreme impacts emerging from an optimistic (Global Trading) and pessimistic (Resource Tensions) future for the food system. The scenarios establish a context for foresight in decision-making and a framework for evaluating the robustness of policies considering the opportunities and challenges arising from Brexit and a global pandemic

A 2018 Horizon Scan of Emerging Issues for Global Conservation and Biological Diversity.

This is our ninth annual horizon scan to identify emerging issues that we believe could affect global biological diversity, natural capital and ecosystem services, and conservation efforts. Our diverse and international team, with expertise in horizon scanning, science communication, as well as conservation science, practice, and policy, reviewed 117 potential issues. We identified the 15 that may have the greatest positive or negative effects but are not yet well recognised by the global conservation community. Themes among these topics include new mechanisms driving the emergence and geographic expansion of diseases, innovative biotechnologies, reassessments of global change, and the development of strategic infrastructure to facilitate global economic priorities

A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2014

This paper presents the output of our fifth annual horizon-scanning exercise, which aims to identify topics that increasingly may affect conservation of biological diversity, but have yet to be widely considered. A team of professional horizon scanners, researchers, practitioners, and a journalist identified 15 topics which were identified via an iterative, Delphi-like process. The 15 topics include a carbon market induced financial crash, rapid geographic expansion of macroalgal cultivation, genetic control of invasive species, probiotic therapy for amphibians, and an emerging snake fungal disease. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd

Identifying the science and technology dimensions of emerging public policy issues through horizon scanning

Public policy requires public support, which in turn implies a need to enable the public not just to understand policy but also to be engaged in its development. Where complex science and technology issues are involved in policy making, this takes time, so it is important to identify emerging issues of this type and prepare engagement plans. In our horizon scanning exercise, we used a modified Delphi technique [1]. A wide group of people with interests in the science and policy interface (drawn from policy makers, policy adviser, practitioners, the private sector and academics) elicited a long list of emergent policy issues in which science and technology would feature strongly and which would also necessitate public engagement as policies are developed. This was then refined to a short list of top priorities for policy makers. Thirty issues were identified within broad areas of business and technology; energy and environment; government, politics and education; health, healthcare, population and aging; information, communication, infrastructure and transport; and public safety and national security.Public policy requires public support, which in turn implies a need to enable the public not just to understand policy but also to be engaged in its development. Where complex science and technology issues are involved in policy making, this takes time, so it is important to identify emerging issues of this type and prepare engagement plans. In our horizon scanning exercise, we used a modified Delphi technique [1]. A wide group of people with interests in the science and policy interface (drawn from policy makers, policy adviser, practitioners, the private sector and academics) elicited a long list of emergent policy issues in which science and technology would feature strongly and which would also necessitate public engagement as policies are developed. This was then refined to a short list of top priorities for policy makers. Thirty issues were identified within broad areas of business and technology; energy and environment; government, politics and education; health, healthcare, population and aging; information, communication, infrastructure and transport; and public safety and national security

A Horizon Scan of Emerging Global Biological Conservation Issues for 2020.

In this horizon scan, we highlight 15 emerging issues of potential relevance to global conservation in 2020. Seven relate to potentially extensive changes in vegetation or ecological systems. These changes are either relatively new, for example, conversion of kelp forests to simpler macroalgal systems, or may occur in the future, for example, as a result of the derivation of nanocelluose from wood or the rapid expansion of small hydropower schemes. Other topics highlight potential changes in national legislation that may have global effect on international agreements. Our panel of 23 scientists and practitioners selected these issues using a modified version of the Delphi technique from a long-list of 89 potential topics.NERC and RSPB fundin

A 2021 Horizon Scan of Emerging Global Biological Conservation Issues.

We present the results from our 12th annual horizon scan of issues likely to impact biological conservation in the future. From a list of 97 topics, our global panel of 25 scientists and practitioners identified the top 15 issues that we believe society may urgently need to address. These issues are either novel in the biological conservation sector or represent a substantial positive or negative step-change in impact at global or regional level. Six issues, such as coral reef deoxygenation and changes in polar coastal productivity, affect marine or coastal ecosystems and seven relate to human and ecosystem-level responses to climate change. Identification of potential forthcoming issues for biological conservation may enable increased preparedness by researchers, practitioners, and decision-makers

A Horizon Scan of Emerging Issues for Global Conservation in 2019.

We present the results of our tenth annual horizon scan. We identified 15 emerging priority topics that may have major positive or negative effects on the future conservation of global biodiversity, but currently have low awareness within the conservation community. We hope to increase research and policy attention on these areas, improving the capacity of the community to mitigate impacts of potentially negative issues, and maximise the benefits of issues that provide opportunities. Topics include advances in crop breeding, which may affect insects and land use; manipulations of natural water flows and weather systems on the Tibetan Plateau; release of carbon and mercury from melting polar ice and thawing permafrost; new funding schemes and regulations; and land-use changes across Indo-Malaysia.contribution from RSP

A horizon scan of global biological conservation issues for 2022

We present the results of our 13th annual horizon scan of issues likely to impact biodiversity conservation. Issues are either novel within the biological conservation sector or could cause a substantial step-change in impact, either globally or regionally. Our global panel of 26 scientists and practitioners identified 15 issues that we believe represent the highest priorities for tracking and action. Many of the issues we identified, including the impact of satellite megaconstellations, and the use of long-distance wireless energy transfer, have elements of threats and emerging opportunities. The recent state-sponsored application to commence deep-sea mining represents a significant step-change in impact. We hope that this horizon scan will increase research and policy attention on the highlighted issues.This exercise was coordinated by the Cambridge Conservation Initiative with funding offered by the Natural Environment Research Council and the RSPB (this funding was not needed because the proceedings were held online). We are grateful to everyone who submitted ideas to the exercise and the following who suggested a topic that made the final list: Jason Dinsdale (wireless energy infrastructure), Ian Francis (floating photovoltaics), Robin Freeman (airborne eDNA), Lizzie Garratt (environmental consequences of new refrigerants), Lammert Hilarides (mangrove expansion) and Jiping Shi (green ammonia). We would also like to thank Mick Clout who contributed to the process but was unable to attend the workshop and the referees for comments. The results, conclusions, and opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of any of their organisations. AT and WJS are funded by Arcadia